Articles Tagged "David Hathaway"

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Joseph D'Aleo: NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
Wednesday, June 13th 2012, 7:28 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NASA MSFC

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

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The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.
Source Link: icecap.us/
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David Hathaway Latest Solar Cycle Update for SC24 IS Making SC 25 Even Worse (updated)
Monday, March 12th 2012, 9:18 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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David Hathaway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse! - Link for original article at ClimateRealists.com 10th October 2010

I had this to say in 2010 - For those of you who follow David Hathaway's Solar Cycle forecasts, it is not looking good for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is due to start about the end of 2020, nothing dramatic about that, apart from it WILL be lower in its Sunspot count then Solar Cycle 24, and boy oh boy how the numbers are starting to fall!

I have kept track of the Solar Cycle 24 forecasts from David Hathaway, and the latest prediction compared from two years or so ago has taken yet another fall...This is what David Hathaway has to say from the recent March 2012 Solar Cycle Prediction Update
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David Hathaway: Sunspot Number Prediction (December 2011)
Saturday, December 31st 2011, 9:30 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs.


Click source to see FULL report
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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David Hathaway: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/08/02)
Saturday, August 13th 2011, 5:53 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013 (same as last month). We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Four out of the last five months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/
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David Hathaway: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/06/01)
Friday, June 17th 2011, 5:25 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThe current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Three consecutive months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.

Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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Lawrence Solomon: NASA scientist reverses sunspot prediction, bolstering global cooling theory
Friday, June 17th 2011, 3:31 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Five years ago, NASA’s David Hathaway, one of the world’s leading authorities on the solar cycle, predicted that the Sun was about to enter an unusually intense period of sunspot activity. Referring to Solar Cycle 24, the 11-year period that we’re now in, Hathaway predicted that it “looks like it’s going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago.”

Because sunspot activity has historically predicted periods of global warming and global cooling – lots of sunspots translates into lots of warming and vice versa – Hathaway’s study – presented at a December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco — acted to support global warming theorists and to discredit the various solar scientists who believe that Earth is about to enter a prolonged period of cooling.

Today, Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, believes his earlier prediction was wrong. Rather than hitting a peak of 160 sunspots, and possibly 185, as he predicted in 2006, he now believes that the Sun’s activity will decline dramatically. The current prediction, to less than half that of 2006, “would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years,” he now states.
Source Link: opinion.financialpost.com
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NASA: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/04/04): Updated by Piers Corbyn
Sunday, April 10th 2011, 4:35 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 62 in July of 2013. We are currently over two years into Cycle 24.

The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in nearly 200 years.


See also David Hatherway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse!

Click source to read FULL report from NASA

Updated below with comments about SC25 by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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Sun's doldrums likely to last by Ron Cowen
Tuesday, March 8th 2011, 5:46 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Despite a recent flare, solar physicists project low activity for up to a decade

A powerful explosion that erupted on the solar surface on February 14 was the most powerful flare in more than four years, and heralds an approaching peak in the sun’s 11-year activity cycle. But as the sun pulls out of an exceptionally quiet period of low activity, researchers predict the coming solar maximum won’t be very exciting either.

“This cycle continues to fall below expectations. And those expectations were pretty low two years ago,” says David Hathaway of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.

The number of sunspots — dark, highly magnetized regions on the solar surface — is one indicator of solar activity, and scientists now predict this will be the weakest sunspot cycle in 200 years. “We are off to a good start for a below-average cycle peaking in late 2013 or early 2014,” says Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Understanding how present activity affects future cycles is important to gauging both the sun’s influence on climate and its likelihood of producing powerful and destructive solar storms.

Solar physicists say they are homing in on the complex internal interactions that could explain why the sun has been hibernating for more than four years now and may not fully awaken for another decade. Hathaway and other researchers say they’re now convinced that a flow of ionized gas, or plasma, known as the meridional flow controls the strength of the solar cycle (SN: 4/10/11, p. 8).On either side of the equator, the flow moves like a conveyor belt that stretches just beneath the solar surface from the equator to the two poles and then dives into the sun’s interior, flowing from the poles back to the equator to complete the loop.
Source Link: sciencenews.org
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David Hathaway: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/01/03) )
Wednesday, January 19th 2011, 2:39 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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David Hathaway: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2010/12/06)
Tuesday, December 28th 2010, 4:50 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 64 in June of 2013.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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