Articles Tagged "Dean Grubbs"

My recent entry What does El Nino and a Scapegoat have in common? chronicled the plethora of weather events being blamed on El Nino. In terms of Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index that the atmposphere has NOT adopted an El Nino produced circulation.

Now that summer is coming to an end its crunch time. Will the warm water along the equatorial Pacific PUT UP or SHUT UP in its effort to deliver an El Nino. The Nino regions are all in El Nino range and probably have been the source of the El Nino scapegoating still in progress. I am about to demonstrate that the El Nino - looking weather patterns are not being generated by the tropics. My opinion is that high latitude blocking which has ruled the summer generated the repetetive weather patterns APPEARING El Nino-like but not SOURCED by AAM anomalies.

Below is a comparison between AAM anomalies from this year and the previous one. You bee the judge regarding whether an El Nino is clearly underway. Here is 2009:

Seasonal forecasting is like predicting the outcome of a baseball game.

There are so many statistics, facts, and figures to analyze. The next step would be to decide which factors are most important. Is it an overpowering pitcher with a low ERA and high strikeouts? Conditions which favor the batters to excel against such a Pitcher. Does a team become error-prone in the second half of the season? Could one team be unbeatable on Sunday afternoons? If you want some really cool (or convoluted) ways to understand Baseball then learn about Sabermetrics.

Weather forecasting casts the same analytical spiderwebs. What rules the day? Is it a warmer than average Atlantic Ocean (AMO), tendency for blocking highs in the North Atlantic (NAO) or over the Pole (AO)? How about the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina? ). Then there is historical data and solar cycles. Caterpillars, Grounhogs, Squirrels gathering nuts ..... ENOUGH INFORMATION TO DRIVE ANY SANE PERSON CRAZY!