Articles Tagged "Steve LaNore"

The solar surface continues “busy” with occasional sunspots as we conclude a very active December 2009. This insures that 2009 will fall several days short of the 266 blank days of 2008. This was a year with the greatest count of sunspot free days since 1913, and another indication of the deepness of the recent solar minimum.

The overall solar flux continues to gradually trend upward (see slideshow below). And, there's every reason to believe the year 2010 will not dip below the low sunspot counts of the past three years.

This is based on not only forecast data but the actual trends since September.

Sunspot groups over the past three months have emitted more flares of greater intensity than at any other time in solar cycle 24. This is further evidence that the Sun is awakening from its extended “sunspot sleep”.

Solar flux information: Jan Alvestad, www.solen.info/solarwww.solen.info/solar

In science, sometimes it’s a challenge to divorce personal opinion from what the data shows. Example: I live in north Texas where we don’t get much snow, and I think snow once in a while (not five months straight) is nice. Because of this, I have to fight a tendency to make a “wishcast” for snow in an extended outlook when the chances may be marginal at best. Having said that, I know better, and this “bias” is under control.

I have noticed a similar mindset from readers of this column (constructive comments, regardless of persuasion, always appreciated; personal attacks are senseless) when I post articles on sunspots. Global cooling advocates don’t like it when I mention a new sunspot. Gee, I don’t make them. Conversely, the global warming crowd wants to debunk ANYTHING that goes against their opinions, which is also not the way science works. What do the DATA say?

The year 2009 has had a very high number of days without sunspots.

In fact, it moved up two places to #4 on the list as of November 14th. Here are the top 10 years with blank days since 1900:

Sunspot-free days since 1900, by year

Year Days
1913 311
2008 266
1912 253
2009 242 (as of Nov 14th)
1954 241
1933 240
1923 200
1911 200
1996 185
2007 163

Sunspot activity has shown an increase since the long quiet spell of July-September 2009 (51 days in a row with a blank solar surface), but it’s certainly nothing to crow about just yet.

A pronounced sunspot group helped push the solar 10.7cm radio flux to its highest level in 18 months in late September; since then, a 19-day blank streak resumed the march of sunspot-less days which now ranks 6th for any year since 1900.

A weak sunspot briefly formed for only a matter of hours on October 21st ; but there’s an indication of another very minimal one forming.

None of these events signal any type of dramatic uptrend in solar activity; in fact, the sun was far more active as to sunspot counts in October 2008 than observed thus far in October 2009 (thru Oct 21).

A new study brings forth some interesting results amid the recent solar downturn and global climate change. During the past seven years (2002-2009) the planet’s temperature has been neutral to slightly cooler. A recent news story on the record warm oceans of July 2009 does suggest at least a temporary interruption in this trend, but the seven-year average shows no warming.

During this same time, the sun’s energy has dialed down ever so slightly. The decreasing solar irradiance has (apparently) offset much (claimed anthropogenic) warming of Earth's surface.
That's what researchers Judith Lean (NRL) and David Rind (NASA/GISS) say. They just published a new investigation on global temperatures in the Geophysical Research Letters, a highly respected and peer-reviewed scientific publication.

Lean and Rind considered four influences on climate change:

1) solar activity (lowest now since 1913)
2) volcanic eruptions
3) ENSO (El Nino)
4) The accumulation of greenhouse gases.
The graph below shows an estimation of how much each has contributed to the changing temperature of Earth's surface since 1980: