Articles Tagged "Joseph D’Aleo"

Who is Joe D'Aleo? He was the first Director of Meteorology at cable TV's Weather Channel, and Chief Meteorologist at the Weather Service's International Corporation. He has over 30 years experience as a meteorologist.

Kim Greenhouse recently interviewed Joseph D'Aleo and he was asked about global cooling: Listen to the interview HERE.

"I believe we're headed into at least a Dalton minimum kind of cooling which could be a degree or two Celsius below globally for over the next couple of decades," says D'Aleo.

"Three degrees Fahrenheit globally. You'll still get your heat waves. Winters will be colder and longer, more extreme. There will be plenty of snow, and snow in places where you usually don't see it.

"The point is that cold is much more dangerous than warmth. This could create crop failures and famines and plagues.

"We believe strongly that cooling is coming.

"We're preparing for something that is not coming."

H/T to Iceagenow.com

We have seen hot summers in 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. Notice a pattern? The years are 11 years apart.

This 11 year cycle may be a coincidence but if so a 1 in 256 chance one. In some years the heat was concentrated in one month (1966 it was July), in others it was throughout.

What else has an 11 year cycle? - the sun of course. The solar cycles average 11 years. When new solar cycles begin the new spots are in higher solar latitudes and gradually move equatorward. During transitions you typically have old cycle spots near the equator and new cycle spots at higher latitudes.

The 11 years above have been during these transitions. A coincidence? We’ll leave it to our solar expert readers to speculate whether this is solar driven and possible mechanisms. Other common elements in some of the years include an El Nino winter giving way to a La Nina summer and strong rebound from a very negative winter negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern.

Click source to download PDF and read FULL report from Joseph S. D’Aleo

Comaprison of the last four solar cycles, note how cycle 23 was long and our recovery out of it into cycle 24 very slow. This is more like the cycles in the early 1900s and especially the early 1800s. JD.

The authors of a newly published paper on the role of the sun’s variability on global temperatures overstate their case that there has been no impact of solar variations on the earth’s temperature history during the past several decades. Antithetically, changes to the sun are generally known to influence the earth’s climate on all time scales, from eons to hours. However, the difficulty comes in trying to fully measure the magnitude of the sun’s variability and then to understand how such changes result in changes to the earth’s climate.

In a new paper, authors Lockwood and Fröhlich seem to ignore these difficulties and uncertainties, dismissing any work on this complex subject that doesn’t agree with their pre‐conclusions.

Click source to read FULL report by Joseph D’Aleo (PDF)

Recent research by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University (GRL June 2010) found the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States goes up drastically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle related to reduced ultraviolet radiation during the quiet sun which leads to less warming of the upper atmosphere and thus greater instability of the atmosphere. Their work was published this month in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters (Elsner, J. B., T. H. Jagger, and R. E. Hodges (2010), Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043091).

For hurricanes to form, the atmosphere must cool fast enough, at the right heights, to make it unstable enough for storm clouds to form. This thunderstorm activity enables heat stored in the ocean to be unleashed, developing into tropical cyclones. As the “heat-engine theory” of hurricanes goes, storm strength decreases when the layer near the hurricane’s top warms.

The sun’s yearly average radiance during its 11-year cycle only changes about one-tenth of one percent, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory. But the warming in the ozone layer can be much more profound, because ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation. Between the high and low of the sunspot cycle, radiation can vary more than 10 percent in parts of the ultraviolet range, Elsner has found [here]

Baldwin and Dunkerton (2004) had found similarly, although solar irradiance varies 0.1- 0.15 (this cycle) over the 11 year cycle, radiation at longer UV wavelengths increased by several (6-8% or more) percent with still larger changes (factor of two or more) at extremely short UV and X-ray wavelengths.

Energetic flares increase the UV radiation by 16%. Ozone in the stratosphere absorbs this excess energy and this heat has been shown to propagate downward and affect the general circulation in the troposphere.

Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) and later Labitzke in numerous papers has shown that high flux (which correlates very well with UV) produces a warming in low and middle latitudes in winter in the stratosphere with subsequent dynamical and radiative coupling to the troposphere. Shindell (1999) used a climate model that included ozone chemistry to reproduce this warming during high flux (high UV) years.

NOAA SEC solar flux (10.7cm) during cycle 23. Note the second solar max with extremely high flux from September 2001 to April 2002.

Click PDF file from iceCap.us to read FULL report from Joseph D'Aleo