Articles Tagged "David Hathaway"

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Joseph D'Aleo: NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
Wednesday, June 13th 2012, 7:28 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NASA MSFC

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

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The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.
Source Link: icecap.us/
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David Hathaway Latest Solar Cycle Update for SC24 IS Making SC 25 Even Worse (updated)
Monday, March 12th 2012, 9:18 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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David Hathaway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse! - Link for original article at ClimateRealists.com 10th October 2010

I had this to say in 2010 - For those of you who follow David Hathaway's Solar Cycle forecasts, it is not looking good for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is due to start about the end of 2020, nothing dramatic about that, apart from it WILL be lower in its Sunspot count then Solar Cycle 24, and boy oh boy how the numbers are starting to fall!

I have kept track of the Solar Cycle 24 forecasts from David Hathaway, and the latest prediction compared from two years or so ago has taken yet another fall...This is what David Hathaway has to say from the recent March 2012 Solar Cycle Prediction Update
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NASA: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/04/04): Updated by Piers Corbyn
Sunday, April 10th 2011, 4:35 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 62 in July of 2013. We are currently over two years into Cycle 24.

The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in nearly 200 years.


See also David Hatherway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse!

Click source to read FULL report from NASA

Updated below with comments about SC25 by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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David Hathaway: Sunspot Number Prediction (December 2011)
Saturday, December 31st 2011, 9:30 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs.


Click source to see FULL report
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
The David Hathaway Solar Cycle 24 Forecast
Tuesday, May 19th 2009, 4:06 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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A couple of weeks ago there was a revised Solar Cycle 24 forecast from NASA concerning the so called "Quite Sun".
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David Archibald On Dr. Hathaway’s Most Recent Solar Cycle 24 Prediction - WUWT
Thursday, October 7th 2010, 6:19 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The Gods punish excessive hubris, but Anthony has invited me to comment on Dr Hathaway’s most recent Solar Cycle 24 prediction:

The number is still wrong.

Hathaway’s number is 64. The best estimate is 48, the same as Solar Cycles 5 and 6. We still have four years to solar maximum so there is plenty of time for activity to build. With the F10.7 flux at 75 as I write this, the trajectory is very flat.

The shape is wrong.

Strong cycles are front-loaded. Weak cycles are symmetrical. This is a weak cycle so the decline will be as long as the ramp up. Dr Hathaway has the Solar Cycle 24/25 transition in 2020. It will be in 2022.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Lawrence Solomon: NASA scientist reverses sunspot prediction, bolstering global cooling theory
Friday, June 17th 2011, 3:31 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Five years ago, NASA’s David Hathaway, one of the world’s leading authorities on the solar cycle, predicted that the Sun was about to enter an unusually intense period of sunspot activity. Referring to Solar Cycle 24, the 11-year period that we’re now in, Hathaway predicted that it “looks like it’s going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago.”

Because sunspot activity has historically predicted periods of global warming and global cooling – lots of sunspots translates into lots of warming and vice versa – Hathaway’s study – presented at a December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco — acted to support global warming theorists and to discredit the various solar scientists who believe that Earth is about to enter a prolonged period of cooling.

Today, Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, believes his earlier prediction was wrong. Rather than hitting a peak of 160 sunspots, and possibly 185, as he predicted in 2006, he now believes that the Sun’s activity will decline dramatically. The current prediction, to less than half that of 2006, “would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years,” he now states.
Source Link: opinion.financialpost.com
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David Hathaway: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/08/02)
Saturday, August 13th 2011, 5:53 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013 (same as last month). We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Four out of the last five months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/
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Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2010/04/01)
Saturday, April 24th 2010, 12:18 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Image source

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.

Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
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Interview: David Hathaway, Ph.D., NASA Heliospheric Team Leader
Tuesday, November 3rd 2009, 2:13 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentDavid Hathaway, Ph.D., Heliospheric Team Leader, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama: “In the 50 years or so we’ve been making the (cosmic ray) measurements – yeah! this is by far the highest level of galactic cosmic rays that we’re seeing at Earth and we know exactly what is causing it. It’s the sun’s weakened magnetic fields and weakened solar winds that are all related to this Solar Cycle 24 minimum.

Beryllium is produced in the Earth’s upper atmosphere by cosmic rays striking nitrogen in particular and you find it in ice cores. If you look back at the record, there are significant changes. But, the amount that you see also depends on the strength and variations of the Earth’s magnetic field.

Periods like the Maunder Minimum occupy about 15% of the time. If you looked over thousands of years of Beryllium 10, it looks like 15% of the time, the sun is in this quiet state where it’s not producing sunspots. Given that, we’re about due. And I think that’s what comes up and why people are actively talking about grand minima like the Maunder Minimum is that if you go by percentages and the fact it has been so active, then we’re about due (for a long minimum).

We don’t have records prior to 1874 that give us details about the sun. Compared to the past 130 years, our sun now is unprecedented as far as how slow this Solar Cycle 24 is taking off - or not taking off!
Source Link: earthfiles.com
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