Articles Tagged "Anthony Watts"

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Must Read: When the Sun Sleeps, IceCap.us
Tuesday, September 14th 2010, 4:16 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
This was posted a year ago by Anthony Watts. I have reposted and added a 5 part video series featuring Svensmark and other scientists.

Henrik Svensmark, Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen

“In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth - quite the contrary. And this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable,” writes Henrik Svensmark.

The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years.” Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth.

If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Let’s take a closer look.

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown - a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.

But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.

Click source to read FULL report from IceCap.us inc. several video's from Henrik Svensmark also see WUWT posting Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”
Source Link: icecap.us
Anthony Watts: The sun is still in a slump – still not conforming to NOAA “consensus” forecasts
Sunday, January 9th 2011, 10:31 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) produced their monthly solar cycle progression update yesterday. The news is not encouraging. We’ve had a drop in solar activity again in December, The sunspot count is lower, but the really worrisome thing is the Ap geomagnetic index. The solar dynamo has now dropped to magnetic activity levels last seen in late 2009. Readers may recall this post from December 23rd: Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero which was a bit unusual this far into cycle 24.

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Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Anthony Watts: New Total Solar Irradiation (TSI) baseline value – solar min measured lower in 2008
Saturday, January 15th 2011, 5:54 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Figures 1B, 1C and 1D from the paper: The average of three different reported composites (ACRIM, PMOD, and RMIB) adjusted to match the SORCE/TIM absolute scale. The grey shading indicates the standard deviation of the three composites. (c) Irradiance variations estimated from an empirical model that combines the two primary influences of facular brightening and sunspot darkening with their relative proportions determined via regression from direct observations made by SORCE/ TIM. (d) The daily sunspot numbers indicate fluctuating levels of solar activity for the duration of the database.

From a new paper by Dr. Greg Kopp and Dr. Judith Lean, new finding on the solar minimum TSI in 2008

The most probable value of total solar irradiance representative of solar minimum is 1360.8 ± 0.5 W m−2, lower than the canonical value of 1365.4 ± 1.3 W m−2 recommended a decade ago. This new value, measured by SORCE/TIM, is validated by irradiance comparisons to a NIST‐calibrated cryogenic radiometer in the new TSI Radiometer Facility. Uncorrected scattering and diffraction are shown to cause erroneously high readings in non‐TIM instruments.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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The Ap Solar Magnetic Index remains low, going on 4 years by Anthony Watts
Monday, September 7th 2009, 5:28 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It has been awhile since I’ve looked at the Ap Index. The last time was April of 2009.

From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little Ap magnetic activity there has been since. Here’s my graph from September 2009 SWPC Ap data:

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Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Anthony Watts: The minimal solar activity in 2008–2009 and its implications for long‐term climate modeling
Saturday, March 19th 2011, 3:30 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Total absolute magnetic fluxes on the Sun for three models: solid/blue: flux estimate (Tapping et al., 2007) based on a partitioning between ‘strong field’ and ‘weak field’ components, scaled from sunspot numbers using their equations (1) and (4); dashed/green: a multi‐component flux model (Vieira and Solanki, 2010) (with time‐dependent couplings, multiplied by 1.25 (going back to 1700); diamonds/red: flux‐dispersal model based on the yearly‐average sunspot number (Schrijver et al., 2002), with points from July 1996 onward based on assimilated magnetic maps (Schrijver and DeRosa, 2003) based on SOHO’s MDI (Scherrer et al., 1995) sampled once per 25‐d period. The multipliers are chosen to bring the fluxes around 2000–2003 to a common scale. The horizontal dotted line shows the flux level characteristic of August‐September 2009.

This is a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters by C. J. Schrijver, W. C. Livingston, T. N. Woods, and R. A. Mewaldt. WUWT readers may recognize Livingston as the creator of one of the datasets we regularly follow graphically on our Solar Data and Images reference page.

They reconstruct total solar flux all the way back to 1650, as seen above:

Click source to read FULL report from Anothony Watts at WUWT
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
A look at: Solar Wind Flow Pressure – Another Indication of Solar Downtrend?
Wednesday, June 10th 2009, 9:18 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
I initially wrote this article using data only from David Archibald, but within a couple of minutes I was given some broader data from Leif Svalgaard, so I have rewritten this to include both resources in the interest of seeing the broader perspective. – Anthony

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Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Cycle 24 spotless days keeps moving up the hill – now “competitive with the Baby Grand minimum”
Saturday, October 3rd 2009, 2:00 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
After an exciting encounter last week with some genuine sunspots that weren’t arguable as specks, pores, or pixels, the sun resumes its quiet state this week.

People send me things. Here’s the latest email from Paul Stanko, who has been following the solar cycle progression in comparison to previous ones.

Hi Anthony,

Out of the numbered solar cycles, #24 is now in 7th place. Only 5, 6, and 7 of the Dalton Minimum and cycles 12, 14, and 15 of the Baby Grand Minimum had more spotless days. Since we’ve now beaten cycle #13, we are clearly now competitive with the Baby Grand minimum.

Here’s a table of how the NOAA panel’s new SC#24 prediction is doing:
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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That solar sinking feeling by Anthony Watts
Saturday, June 12th 2010, 9:40 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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When I last wrote about the solar activity situation, things were (as Jack Horkheimer used to say) “looking up”. Now, well, the news is a downer. From the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) all solar indices are down, across the board:

The radio activity of the sun has been quieter:

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And the Ap Geomagnetic Index has taken a drop after peaking last month:

Click source to read FULL report from Anthony Watts at WUWT
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
Anthony Watts: University of Colorado and NASA Research Center to Study Sun’s Effects on Earth’s Climate
Tuesday, November 30th 2010, 7:02 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
CU-NASA Research Center to Study Sun’s Effects on Earth’s Climate

The University of Colorado at Boulder’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., today announced the formation of a new collaborative research center dedicated to the study of the sun’s effect on Earth’s climate.

The center, called the Sun-Climate Research Center, or SCRC, will be co-directed by LASP Research Scientist Peter Pilewskie as well as Robert Cahalan, who heads Goddard’s Climate and Radiation Branch, and Douglas Rabin, head of Goddard’s Solar Physics Laboratory.

“The exciting thing about this collaboration is that we believe it will promote studies to help answer key questions about the climate system, including how Earth’s atmosphere responds to the sun’s variability and how that affects climate,” said Pilewskie, a faculty member in CU-Boulder’s atmospheric and oceanic sciences department. “This question is particularly important now as we seek to quantify the human-induced impact on Earth’s climate.”
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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December sunspots on the rise by Anthony Watts
Thursday, December 31st 2009, 4:39 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The dark line is a linear least-squares fit to the data. If the trend continues exactly as shown (prediction: it won’t), sunspots will become a non-stop daily occurance no later than February 2011. Blank suns would cease and solar minimum would be over.

If the past two years have taught us anything, however, it is that the sun can be tricky and unpredictable.

Click source to read FULL report
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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