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Piers Corbyn: Jet stream shifts are the stuff of Climate Change and Cosmic Rays are nothing to do with them
Wednesday, May 25th 2011, 5:30 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
A study "linking" #cosmic rays & #aerosols/cloud formation via #solar activity was posted on WUWT

This is a theory which does not work. My Comment on the Article was posted on WUWT 18May 4:50pm as below:

NO! THINK!

Cosmic Rays and solar activity are inverse proxies of each other so seeing one does not mean the other causes anything. An observed relation between solar activity and any earth atmospheric variable does NOT need Cosmic rays as the agency. The agent can be (AND IS!) solar particles themselves which have 300 times the energy flux on average of cosmic rays. Cosmic Rays are a side show.

The clincher is that if Cosmic Rays are the agents linking solar activity to the earth's atmosphere then since they follow the suns' 11 year cycle then world temperatures should mainly follow the 11 yr cycle BUT THEY DO NOT. They follow the 22 year magnetic cycle which guides solar particles in magnetically sensitive ways. Please see the Climate Realist thread on this World cooling has set-in warns astrophysicist - BBC & 'Global Warming apologists' challenged to end 'cover-up'

And let us be clear when, using predicable aspects of solar activity, we at WeatherAction.com forecast extreme weather events with high skill we OBSERVE the chain of being:

solar activity (eg X flares, fast solar wind proton bursts etc) =>ionospheric/magnetic effects=> jet stream shifts / tornadoes / weather.

THERE ARE NO OBSERVED MODULATIONS OF COSMIC RAYS ON THESE SHORT TIME SCALES SO THEY CANNOT BE THE AGENTS OF WEATHER CHANGE OR CLIMATE CHANGE. (climate being the sum of weather over a long time)


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THINK!!! For Cosmic Rays (which arrive essentially isotropically) to be modulated by solar activity, the magnetic flux (irrespective of direction) filling a large part of the solar system has to change - that takes weeks or months (the slow solar wind and magnetic flux takes typically 4 days to reach Earth for example and its got to go way beyond that to have a major effect), NOT half a day or so.

For a good Video link example of solar action driving changes in the jet stream see:-

Links at the bottom of slide 38 of the PDF in our submission to the UK Parliamentary Inquiry into December 2010 coldest for 100 years crisis. This shows a very dramatic double sunspot eruption driving the jet stream shift we predicted which ended the West Russia heat wave and Pakistan superfloods http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=318&c=1

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No3.pdf - Forecasted simultaneous blizzards in USA and Tropical Cyclone Yasi devastating Queensland preceded by fast solar wind from a very large coronal hole.

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No4.pdf - Similar pair of forecasted events eb 18/19 preceded by largest (X2) solar flare for 4 years

JET STREAM SHIFTS ARE THE STUFF OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND COSMIC RAYS ARE NOTHING TO DO WITH THEM.

So, the Cosmic Ray agency is a nice idea but doesn't work (beyond perhaps a very minor effect of about 0.3%). It is a dangerous diversion to promote it as THE MAIN agent of sun-earth links because as it is shown on a regular basis that it doesn't work the CO2 delusional sect just use their "Not a dog so it must be a cat" logic, ie "Ah it's not the Sun therefore it must be CO2".

Thanks, Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist WeatherAction.com long range weather & Climate Forecasters
Source Link: weatheraction.com
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