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Paul Hudson: Is Solar activity to blame for Japan's massive earthquake?
Saturday, March 12th 2011, 3:42 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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03/11/2011
The K7RA Solar Update

Solar Cycle 24 continued its upward trend this week. The average daily sunspot number was more than double the value of the week before, rising from 50.9 to 114, while the average daily solar flux rose 44 percent, from 96.8 to 139.4. All this week through Tuesday, sunspot numbers and the solar flux kept rising and beating old numbers, and we had to look further and further back into Solar Cycle 23 to find comparable conditions. Sunspot numbers for March 3-9 were 71, 104, 114, 118, 122, 137 and 132, with a mean of 114. The 10.7 cm flux was 120.9, 126.8, 134.6, 142.5, 153, 155 and 143.1, with a mean of 139.4. The estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 5, 10, 5 and 4, with a mean of 7.3. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 7, 4, 3, 7, 4 and 2, with a mean of 5.4.

On Tuesday, March 8, the daily sunspot number was 137. The last time the daily sunspot number was higher than this was July 7, 2005, when it was 149. Twice this week, the 10.7 cm receiver at Penticton was overloaded -- swamped by energy from a solar flare -- and the daily solar flux value had to be estimated. On March 7 and 8, the noon solar flux readings were 938.6 and 166.7; these were corrected by NOAA to estimated values of 153 and 155. The estimated flux level of 155 was the highest since July 23, 2004, when the solar flux was 165. On Thursday, March 10, the sunspot number was 88 and solar flux was 131.3.

The predicted solar flux for March 11-14 is 130, 130, 125, 125, then 120 on March 15-18, 100 on March 19-21 and then going below 100 until April 2. The predicted planetary A index for March 11-13 is 18, 12 and 10, then 5 on March 14-21, 7 on March 22-23 and 5 on March 24-26, then 7, 7, 19 and 7 on March 27-30. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on March 11-14, quiet to unsettled March 15 and quiet March 16-17.

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