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Climate Change is Dominated by Natural Phenomena by Dan Pangburn P.E. guest post at Climate Realists
Friday, March 11th 2011, 3:19 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Climate Change Causes

Examination of measured data and data that has been determined using a measured proxy (the time-integral of sunspot number) reveals that climate change, as described by average global temperature (agt), whether it is called Global Warming, Global Climate Disruption or even Global Cooling, has been caused, at least primarily and probably nearly entirely, by natural phenomena. A fairly simple equation that uses measurements of these phenomena accurately (R2= 0.88) calculates agt over the entire period of when it has been accurately measured (since about 1895). The equation and a graph of the latest results are given below.

The equation posits that agt variation depends on three things. They are (1) the time-integral of sunspot number (this is a proxy that correlates with energy retained by the planet), (2) the effective sea surface temperature, and (3) the change in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The equation contains coefficients that set the fraction of the total change that each of these three contributes. The coefficients are adjusted to find the best match of calculated agt to measured agt. The closeness of match is determined by the coefficient of determination, R2.

The coefficients that result in the highest possible R2 allow determination of the fraction that each of the three phenomena contributes.


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About 40% of the agt change from the calculated low in 1909 until the calculated high in 2005 correlates with variation in the time-integral of sunspot numbers. The calculation of the net energy change (in an application of the first law of thermodynamics) is trivially easy. It is simply the time-integral of sunspot numbers minus the time-integral of the energy radiated from the planet The correlation between this and the temperature run-up in the last half of the 20th century is truly astounding. The result of the calculation is shown in a graph on page 14 of the pdf made public on 4/10/2010 at this site

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