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Dr. Tim Ball: Governments Prepare For Warming as Solar Activity Declines And Cooling Continues
Tuesday, December 28th 2010, 8:20 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) position that the sun has nothing to do with global warming or climate change

A British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) story links the current weather with that of the Little Ice Age (LIA). They begin as follows; Astronomers have reported that the Sun is at its dimmest for almost a century.

It’s remarkable from the BBC because they’ve consistently pushed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) position that the sun has nothing to do with global warming or climate change.

Solar changes are responsible for most climate variations from cyclical changes in Sun/Earth relationships (the Milankovitch Effect), to changes in electromagnetic radiation (heat and light), to changes in cloud cover caused by varying cosmic radiation controlled by changing solar magnetism.

Solar activity is diminishing as those who questioned the anthropogenic warming (AGW) theory said

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Figure 1 shows sunspot activity slowing.

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The article talks about two previous coolings caused by reduced solar activity, the Dalton (1795-1823) and the Maunder (1645-1715) Minimums (Figure 2). Last year skeptics were speculating on conditions similar to the Dalton, but now Maunder is looking more likely.

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Michael Mann and deceivers at the IPCC eliminated the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) but they also removed the LIA in the handle of the “hockey stick”. They overrode extensive research that described conditions of the time with the help Obama’s science czar, John Holdren. Ironically, during the cooling period from 1940 to 1980 those who now exploit global warming were exploiting global cooling. Martin Parry and others were producing reports on the impacts of cooling on agriculture in various marginal regions. They used evidence from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to project expected changes. Parry later jumped on the warming wagon as co-chair of the 2007 IPCC Working Group II Report on Impacts. He dismissed as trivial the deception about melting Himalayan glaciers.

Historic Impacts

Recently a documentary on Scottish history made no mention of the climate changes associated with the LIA and the impact on the Highland Clearances.

In fact, history makes little sense unless you know the climate changes that triggered most change. Figure 3 shows the marginal and submarginal land throughout the British Isles. As temperatures declined from the MWP the height on the sides of the hills above which agriculture was not possible, lowered. An estimated 200 meter drop occurred, which doesn’t sound like much, but when converted to a gradient, expands into all the submarginal area. Impact on the County of Berwick (Figure 4) shows the dramatic decrease in agricultural area. Apparently wheat went out of production and wasn’t reintroduced until the latter part of the 19th century.

Highland clans were forced into the lowlands, which triggered clan warfare at the end of the 16th century. By 1600 an estimated 100,000 people were shipped to the Ulster Plantation (Northern Ireland). Countless others went to North America. Landowners reacted by pushing out most who tried to remain, replacing them with sheep and Highland Cattle.

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Figure 3: Marginal and submarginal agricultural land.
Source: Parry, Martin, et al. 1996. Report of the UK Climate Change Impacts Review Group. UK Department of the Environment, London. 2 July 1996.

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Figure 4: County of Berwickshire, Scotland. Decreasing agricultural area

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Figure 5: Agricultural and social impact

Philippine volcano Pinatubo erupted in 1991 and caused global temperatures to drop by 1°C in 1992. It was an opportunity to analyze the impact, but most of that focused on the weather and climate or the agriculture around the volcano. I saw the impact on Canada as corn failed to ripen and farmers used a desiccant to harvest grains. Figure 6 shows the estimated changes in Canadian agricultural potential of a 1°C drop

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Figure 6: Speculative Map of a 1°C temperature decline in Canada.

Warm Bias

Clearly the ability to adapt and adjust is better than it was in the 18th century, but some of that advantage is lost because the government is preparing for warming. Another problem is the IPCC focus on only the negative impacts of warming. This bias was a measure of the scientific disgrace and political bias of the their work. Among the most nasty attacks on anything I have written was for an article published in Canada, identifying the positive effects, which among others, includes a larger agricultural area, longer frost free growing seasons, reduced fuel consumption for home heating and vehicles, reduced road repairs because of less frost damage. People are only aware of the negative impacts of warming so they are unaware that the impacts of cooling are much more severe. For example, they warn of increased loss of life due to warming, but many more people die every year from cold even now. That would increase in a colder world.

Parry brushed aside criticisms of the 2007 Impact Report saying, “It is easy to forget the big picture, which is that the WG2 volume represents a sound and reliable statement of our knowledge.”

This is a totally false statement and only valid as it speaks to the massive deceptions Parry and the IPCC foist on the world. Beyond the multitude of errors there is the complete bias to warming. This type of bias has dominated everything they’ve done. “The Stern Review on the economics of climate change, which was commissioned by the Treasury, was greeted with headlines worldwide when it was published in October 2006. It contained dire predictions about the impact of climate change in different parts of the world. But it can be revealed that when the report was printed by Cambridge University Press in January 2007, some of these predictions had been watered down because the scientific evidence on which they were based could not be verified.”

They adjusted the Review because of false science from the IPCC Reports. What they ignored was that the Review only looked at the cost of warming. No reputable economist does such a single-sided study – a cost/benefit analysis is the standard approach.

They conned governments with one deception after another and precluded any chance of a logical and reasonable approach. Beyond the fact that doing nothing is the best policy, if you want to prepare you prepare for cooling because if you are wrong the adjustment to a warmer world is so much easier. Meanwhile the record colds continue. Hans Jelbring brought the following to my attention. The December 26, 2010 Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter the headlne reads Kallaste vintern sedan 1700-talet (Coldest winter since the 18th century). Atlanta, Georgia had the first white Christmas since 1882.

The denials and deceptions also continue. Included is corruption of the global temperature record to prove 2010 was the warmest on record. The Obama administration compounds the problems by not challenging the falsehoods and corruption but continues his plan to bankrupt the coal industry by imposing heavy restrictions on energy through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

By his word this guarantees skyrocketing energy costs, which will impact the poor and middle class most as heating bills soar. It’s the political version of the song, “You always hurt the one you claim to love.”
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