Articles Tagged "David Archibald"

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David Archibald: Climate is a non-problem. What is happening is Cooling
Saturday, August 13th 2011, 5:43 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Archibald Speech Rally Canberra 16th August 2011

My first duty to you today is tell you what is happening to the climate. What is happening is cooling. The oceans started cooling in 2003, and the atmosphere is following. There has been no warming since 1998.

In fact, the temperature of planet today is almost the same as it was when satellites first started measuring it in 1979. No one under the age of 32 has experienced global warming. Some of us predate that and remember the heavy frosts of the nineteen seventies. Those frosts are returning, and worse. Solar activity is weakening, and will remain weak for another 22 years.

We in this blessed country will be spared the worst of it, but a large portion of the grain belt in the northern hemisphere will have crop failures due to longer winters and early frosts. Canada will go from being a large exporter of grain to becoming a frequent importer. As long as Australia remains a net food exporter, we will benefit from the shorter Northern Hemisphere growing season.

For us, climate is a non-problem. Carbon dioxide’s heating effect is real, but minuscule. The one hundred parts per million that we have added to the atmosphere in the last one hundred years has heated the planet by one tenth of a degree. We will add another hundred parts per million over the next fifty years. The total of two tenths of a degree will be very welcome by mid-century.
Source Link: joannenova.com.au
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Book: David Archibald: The world is cooling
Tuesday, November 30th 2010, 7:09 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThe first thing to be aware of is that the warming effect of carbon dioxide is strongly logarithmic. Of the 3°C that carbon dioxide contributes to the greenhouse effect, the first 20 ppm has a greater effect than the following 300 ppm. By the time we get to the current level of 388 ppm, each 100 ppm increment will produce only about 0.1° of warming. With the atmospheric carbon dioxide content currently rising at about 2 ppm per annum, temperature will rise at 0.1° of warming every 50 years. ,

If that is true, you will ask, how does the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) get its icecap-melting figure of 6°C for doubling of the pre-industrial level 280 ppm to 560 ppm? It is widely accepted that, in the absence of feedbacks, doubling would produce a rise of 1°C. The IPCC climate modelling assumes that the feedback from this rise will be positive; that is, that the extra heat will result in more water vapour in the atmosphere, which in turn will cause more heat to be trapped, and the system compounds away until 1°C gets turned into 6°C. As described, the Earth’s climate would be tremendously unstable, prone to thermal runaway at the slightest disturbance.

The real world evidence says the opposite. In late 2007, Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama published a paper analysing data from the Aqua satellite. Based on the response of tropical clouds. Dr. Spencer demonstrated that the feedback is negative. He calculates a 0.5°C warming for a doubling of the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level. Global warming, as caused by carbon dioxide, is real but it is also minuscule, and will be lost in the noise of the climate system.
Source Link: australianconservative.com
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NASA now saying that a Dalton Minimum repeat is possible by David Archibald
Wednesday, July 29th 2009, 2:34 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:

Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Giv2.me - The Charity Donations Site
Book: The Past and Future of Climate - Why scientists get it wrong by David Archibald: Updated with Four YouTube's
Wednesday, June 2nd 2010, 7:47 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentEdited extract: "Why did so many scientists get it wrong?" from David Archibald's book - The Past and Future of Climate:

If the data and forecasts in this book are correct, then the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academy of Sciences in the United States, the Royal Society in the United Kingdom, the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO in Australia are all wrong.

How can this be? Firstly, there aren’t that many scientists involved in the IPCC deliberations. The inner core is possibly twenty souls. Secondly, they were untroubled by the necessity to concoct fraudulent data to get their desired results. The only unknown question regarding the IPCC scientists is “Did they actually believe in the global warming that they were promoting?”

It turns out that they did, and possibly still do. That is shown by the Climategate emails released on 20th November, 2009. The Climategate emails are a selection of emails amongst members of the inner core plus minor characters. The fact that the IPCC scientists believed in the global warming they were promoting means that their morality at that level was better than expected, but it also means that they are a lot more stupid than expected. Nevertheless, their behaviour in promoting the notion of global warming using fraudulent statistics is reprehensible and hopefully they will be duly punished in this world or the next.

The history of the global warming fraud has been detailed in a number of books published recently, including a number on the climategate emails alone. A good analysis of the emails can be found in a book entitled The Climategate Emails by John Costella, which can be downloaded from the Lavoisier Group website.

Updated below with Four YouTube's
Source Link: quadrant.org.au
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David Archibald on Climate and Energy Security - WUWT: Updated
Sunday, February 13th 2011, 2:03 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Intro by Anthony Watts - Below is a slide presentation given by David Archibald in Melbourne on February 5th. He’s asked me to repeat it here for the benefit of all. I’m happy to do so. He covers climate issues, oil and coal, plus Thorium reactors in this presentation of 110 slides.

He also touches on his upcoming book, which we’ll have more on later. In the meantime, his current book is still available here

Slides below, be patient while they load. There is a wealth of information here. A PDF is also available. – Anthony

CLICK for WUWT download and see David Archibald NCC Power Point 5th February 2010 - (PDF file 6.2 MB)

Updated below by "The Institute of World Politics"
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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A look at: Solar Wind Flow Pressure – Another Indication of Solar Downtrend?
Wednesday, June 10th 2009, 9:18 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
I initially wrote this article using data only from David Archibald, but within a couple of minutes I was given some broader data from Leif Svalgaard, so I have rewritten this to include both resources in the interest of seeing the broader perspective. – Anthony

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Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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MUST SEE VIDEO: Dalton Minimum Repeat goes mainstream
Monday, February 15th 2010, 2:44 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The AGU Fall meeting has a session entitled “Aspects and consequences of an unusually deep and long solar minimum”. Two hours of video of this session can be accessed here.

Two of the papers presented had interesting observations with implications for climate. First of all Solanki came to the conclusion that the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century. He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years.

CLICK TO SEE VIDEO LINK

H/T IceCap.us
Source Link: icecap.us
The Warning in the Stars by David Archibald
Saturday, February 27th 2010, 5:57 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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If climate is not a random walk, then we can predict climate if we understand what drives it. The energy that stops the Earth from looking like Pluto comes from the Sun, and the level and type of that energy does change. So the Sun is a good place to start if we want to be able to predict climate. To put that into context, let’s look at what the Sun has done recently. This is a figure from “Century to millenial-scale temperature variations for the last two thousand years indicated from glacial geologic records of Southern Alaska” G.C.Wiles, D.J.Barclay, P.E.Calkin and T.V.Lowell 2007:

The red line is the C14 production rate, inverted. C14 production is inversely related to solar activity, so we see more C14 production during solar minima. The black line is the percentage of ice-rafted debris in seabed cores of the North Atlantic, also plotted inversely. The higher the black line, the warmer the North Atlantic was. The grey vertical stripes are solar minima. As the authors say,” Previous analyses of the glacial record showed a 200- year rhythm to glacial activity in Alaska and its possible link to the de Vries 208-year solar (Wiles et al., 2004). Similarly, high-resolution analyses of lake sediments in southwestern Alaska suggests that century-scale shifts in Holocene climate were modulated by solar activity (Hu et al., 2003). It seems that the only period in the last two thousand years that missed a de Vries cycle cooling was the Medieval Warm Period.

Click source to download PDF from icecap.us
Source Link: icecap.us
Hey dude, where’s my solar ramp up? by David Archibald, guest post at WUWT
Sunday, May 16th 2010, 3:22 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The prognostications based on spotless days are now a distant memory. From here, given that the green corona brightness indicates that solar maximum will in 2015, the big unknown is what the maximum amplitude will be. We are now eighteen months into a six year rise to solar maximum. What is interesting is that in the last few days, the F10.7 flux has fallen to values last seen in late 2009:

The red line is a possible uptrend based on the data to date. That uptrend would result in a maximum F10.7 amplitude in 2015 of about 105. Using the relationship between F10.7 flux and sunspot number, that in turn means a maximum amplitude in terms of sunspot number of 50 – a Dalton Minimum-like result. Dr Svalgaard has kindly provided a graphic of the relationship between sunspot number and F10.7 flux
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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Archibald – The Ap Index says: “There will be no sunspots”
Tuesday, June 23rd 2009, 11:25 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentSun today - a spot group has appeared, spots 1022 & 1023 are cycle 24 spots

Guest post by David Archibald on WUWT

Frank Hill says that his sunspots will be with us in three to six months. The Ap Index suggests otherwise. There is a correlation between the geomagnetic indices (aa Index and Ap Index) at minimum and the amplitude of the following solar cycle.

Earlier this year I produced this graph of the Ap Index plotted against solar cycle maxima when I thought that the Ap Index would bottom out at three, giving a maximum amplitude of 25:
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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