Solar Cycle 25 Blog

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Roger Andrews: Solar Activity, ENSO And Recent Global Warming
Saturday, March 17th 2012, 7:20 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Before proceeding, credit where credit is due. The concept of a relationship between the sun and ENSO events isn’t new. It’s been discussed at least twice on this blog (here and here) and in detail by Theodor Landscheidt (here).The connection between ENSO events and warming isn’t new either. Three years ago Bob Tisdale (here) showed how ENSO events caused periodic upward shifts in the SST record that explained all of the recent global warming. Also not new, thanks to our host, is the theory that the oceans periodically release stored heat to the air (here). So a h/t to these gentlemen and to any others I may have omitted.

What follows is my attempt to condense these hypotheses into a narrative that uses observational data to illustrate how the solar cycle, ENSO events and the release of stored ocean heat, and not man-made greenhouse gases, combined to cause the recent global warming, which began, incidentally, in 1976.

ENSO Events and Solar Cycles

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Figure 1 plots the Niño3.4 Index since 1960 (the Bivariate ENSO, Multivariate ENSO and Oceanic Niño Indices give essentially the same results). I’ve used the commonly-accepted +/-0.5C threshold to define individual Niño and Niña events and the zero crossover to define Niños and Niñas that transition directly into each other, and the duration of each event is shown by the red and blue vertical stripes.

Figure 1: ENSO Events Defined by Niño3.4 Index (Niños red, Niñas blue)
Source Link:
Solar Update March 2012 by David Arcibald, guest post at WUWT
Saturday, March 17th 2012, 7:49 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Figure 1: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2012

The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle is currently at 67°. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.
Source Link:
ScienceCasts: The Surprising Power of a Solar Storm
Friday, March 23rd 2012, 5:40 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
ScienceCasts: The Surprising Power of a Solar Storm

Uploaded by ScienceAtNASA on Mar 22, 2012

Visit for more.

A flurry of solar activity in early March dumped enough heat in Earth's upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. The heat has since dissipated, but there's more to come as the solar cycle intensifies.


Also see - The Charity Donations Site
Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance, report from
Sunday, January 1st 2012, 9:30 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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On Dec. 31st, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe when sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. "There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments," reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:

"The sun is below the horizon where we are located north of the Arctic Circle," says Stammes. "This event shows we still have some contact with the sun."

Click source for more
Source Link: (use 1st January 2012 when set up)
Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum: The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24
Wednesday, March 7th 2012, 11:43 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorologicalstations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 ◦C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solarsignal.

Click source to download PDF file, see also Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
Source Link: he long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24 (PDF)
NASA: Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/04/04): Updated by Piers Corbyn
Sunday, April 10th 2011, 4:35 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 62 in July of 2013. We are currently over two years into Cycle 24.

The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in nearly 200 years.

See also David Hatherway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse!

Click source to read FULL report from NASA

Updated below with comments about SC25 by Piers Corbyn
Source Link:
Must Read: When the Sun Sleeps,
Tuesday, September 14th 2010, 4:16 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
This was posted a year ago by Anthony Watts. I have reposted and added a 5 part video series featuring Svensmark and other scientists.

Henrik Svensmark, Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen

“In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth - quite the contrary. And this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable,” writes Henrik Svensmark.

The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years.” Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth.

If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Let’s take a closer look.

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown - a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.

But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.

Click source to read FULL report from inc. several video's from Henrik Svensmark also see WUWT posting Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”
Source Link:
MUST LISTEN: An Interview with Frank Hill, Associate Director for the U.S. National Solar Observatory
Friday, April 13th 2012, 7:01 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Frank Hill: Future sunspot drop, but no new ice age.

Frank Hill is an astronomer at the U.S. National Solar Observatory. Last summer (June, 2011) Hill and colleagues announced their conclusions that sunspot activity might be headed for a dramatic drop in activity, beginning around the year 2019. The sun normally follows a cycle of activity lasting about 11 years. The current cycle, Cycle 24, is now heading towards its peak. Frank Hill and colleagues are looking toward the next cycle — Cycle 25. Based on data showing decades-long trends, they are suggesting its peak might be delayed or that it might not have a typical peak in activity at all. Hill spoke more about the recent sunspot study with EarthSky’s Jorge Salazar.

Frank Hill told EarthSky that — while his team did suggest a drop in solar activity beginning around 2019 — they did not suggest Earth would cool as a result.

Are you familiar with media reports that have gotten this story wrong?

Yes, actually. It seems to me that a lot of reports have come out and said that we have predicted a new ice age. That is making the leap from low sunspot activity to cooling. We did not predict a little ice age.
Source Link:
Sun's 11-year cycle means we're in for Arctic freeze this winter, say scientists by Leon Watson
Monday, October 10th 2011, 7:45 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Study measures sun's UV radiation to 'predict' seasons

First-ever 'high-resolution' scan of solar radiation

Cycle's effect on weather 'greater than first thought'

This year's low radiation makes for cold Easterly winds

It's been a lovely Indian summer - but it could come back to bite us.

That's what scientists predict after working out the first ever pattern of activity for the sun.

According to research, the sun runs on an 11-year cycle - and this affects winter weather over the northern hemisphere.
Source Link:
David Hathaway: Sunspot Number Prediction (December 2011)
Saturday, December 31st 2011, 9:30 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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CLICK to see large image

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs.

Click source to see FULL report
Source Link:
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