Solar Cycle 25 Blog

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Habibullo Abdussamatov: Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age
Wednesday, February 1st 2012, 1:10 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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"We can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of total solar irradiance (TSI) in approximately 2042±11 and the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055±11." --Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Russian Academy of Science, 1 February 2012


Temporal changes in the power of the longwave radiation of the system Earth-atmosphere emitted to space always lag behind changes in the power of absorbed solar radiation due to slow change of its enthalpy.

That is why the debit and credit parts of the average annual energy budget of the terrestrial globe with its air and water envelope are practically always in an unbalanced state. Average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time period will reliably determine the course and value of both an energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget which, with account for data of the TSI forecast, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes.

From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014.
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Piers Corbyn: Solar Climate Change is happening now: The sun is entering a ‘muddled’ magnetic state.
Thursday, April 26th 2012, 9:53 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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'Little Ice Age ' (Maunder-Dalton) circulation patterns are emerging and more rapid world cooling is taking over.

Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of (26th April) says:

"The Sun’s magnetic field is getting into a muddle as one half of it changes out of step with the other and this muddled behavior is likely to become very marked in MAY.

"This strange behavior was pointed out by Japanese researchers from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation* who say this was the sort of behavior which probably took place during low periods of solar activity in the past** and which drove the world into a cold state of longer winters, cold Spring months and lousy summers.

"At the same time independent observers have noticed an increase in Little Ice Age type (Maunder-Dalton type) weather events and circulation patterns around the world such as more extreme hailstorms and cyclonic cold weather in Britain and Ireland with the Jet stream shifted well south***.
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Solar Cycle 24 Length and Its Consequences by David Archibald, guest post at WUWT
Tuesday, January 10th 2012, 1:25 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Solar Cycle 24 is now three years old and predictions of the date of solar maximum have settled upon mid-2013. For example, Jan Janssens has produced this graph predicting the month of maximum in mid-2013, which is 54 months after the Solar Cycle 23/24 minimum in December 2008:

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For those of us who wish to predict climate, the most important solar cycle attribute is solar cycle length. Most of the curve-fitting exercises such as NASA’s place the next minimum between 2020 and 2022 (eg: Solar minimum in December 2022 would make Solar Cycle 24 fourteen years long, which in turn would make the climate of the mid-latitudes over Solar Cycle 25 about 1.0°C colder than the climate over Solar Cycle 24.
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THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES - The Charity Donations Site
It’s the Sun, silly by David Archibald
Wednesday, August 12th 2009, 5:44 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Carbon dioxide is not the major influence on climate

The government’s intention to introduce an emissions trading system in Australia rests upon their belief that human carbon-dioxide emissions are a cause of dangerous global warming. That belief is incorrect. Though carbon dioxide is indeed a minor greenhouse gas, the major control on earth’s climate has always been, and remains, the Sun.

The correlation between solar activity and climate was first noticed in ancient Greece in 400 BC (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). The Sun’s solar cycles are normally 11 years long, and can vary from nine years to 16 years. There is a correlation between solar cycle length and amplitude, with the shorter the cycle the higher the amplitude. High amplitude cycles produce a stronger solar wind, changing the level of galactic cosmic rays impinging on the Earth’s atmosphere. This is measured as neutron counts at several stations around the planet. That in turn alters the Earth’s albedo by changing cloud formation, as increased galactic cosmic rays enhance cloud formation.

Variation in the Earth’s albedo due to changing cloud cover is sufficient to have caused the warming of the 20th century (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). This is borne out by the relationship between Be10 levels in the Dye 3 ice core from Greenland and major climatic periods. Be10 is formed by cosmic ray spallation of oxygen and nitrogen. Spikes in Be10 levels in the Dye 3 core are associated with all the major cold periods of the Little Ice Age, including the un-named cold period at the end of the 19th century.
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P. Gosselin: The Sun’s Impact On Earth’s Temperature Goes Far Beyond TSI – New Paper Shows
Sunday, January 1st 2012, 9:26 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Solar particles interact with Earth's magnetosphere. (Source: NASA)

No surprise here. Just more inconvenient results for CO2 broken-record dogmatists

New paper: GISS temps and solar activity

A recent paper published by the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestial Physics (74) 2012 87-93 and authored by Souza Echer et al. suggests that solar cycles, to a substantial extent, drive global temperatures, and that likely through amplification mechanisms.

The paper is titled: On the relationship between global, hemispheric and latitudinal averaged air surface temperature (GISS time series) and solar activity.

The authors decomposed average air surface temperature series obtained from GISS and sunspot number (Rz) from 1880 – 2005 to see if a correlation could be found. They performed a cross correlation analysis between band-passed filtered data around 11-year and 22 years.
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Solar Climate Change: 'Major Result' on Sunspot Cycle Announced : Now Updated with links
Saturday, June 11th 2011, 1:06 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Astronomers will unveil a "major result" on Tuesday (June 14) regarding the sun's 11-year sunspot cycle.

The announcement will be made at a solar physics conference in New Mexico, according to an alert released today (June 10) by the American Astronomical Society. The discussion will begin at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

Currently, the sun is in the midst of its Solar Cycle 24, the 24th cycle since observations began.

Recently, the sun has begun rousing itself from an extended quiescent period. Over the past several months, our star has unleashed several immensely powerful flares and sent huge volumes of solar plasma rocketing toward Earth, in massive eruptions known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

In the near future, the flares and CMEs should get more frequent and more intense. Researchers predict that solar activity will peak sometime in 2013 or 2014.

Result of Announcement:

New Insights on How Solar Minimums Affect Earth by Karen C. Fox, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity by Denise Chow,

Lewis Page: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

David Whitehouse: Next Solar Cycle May Not Happen

Is the Sunspot Cycle About to Stop? by Jay M. Pasachoff

Next solar cycle may be weakest for centuries by Kate Taylor, TG Daily

Lawrence Solomon: NASA scientist reverses sunspot prediction, bolstering global cooling theory
Book: Frozen Britain by Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson: Review: Is Britain's Future Freezing? by James Gillespie
Saturday, December 3rd 2011, 7:41 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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WHEN Siberian conditions hit Britain this time last year everyone was caught out, including the weathermen.

Global warming, we had been told, meant the snowy conditions we remember from our childhoods would be just that: memories.

But following the bitter cold of the past two winters those predictions are beginning to look rather wide of the mark. now a new book, Frozen Britain by meteorologists Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson, suggests that rather than facing milder winters we could be in for some more Arctic big freezes.

Certainly, despite everything that the global-warming lobby has suggested, our climate may be dictated by more than just man- made toxins pumped into the atmosphere. One of the key indicators – which has fallen out of favour with the computer-obsessed meteorologists of today – is the sun.

According to McCaskill and Hudson the clues to our future weather may lie with the sun.

“In the past few years it has been behaving very oddly,” Hudson says.

In the past, when there have been periods of relative inactivity on the surface of the sun they have been followed by years of cold winters.

Research published recently showed that in the early 1800s when activity on the sun was remarkably low for many years there was a dramatic change in the weather.
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Geologist Declares 'global warming is over' -- Warns U.S. Climate Conference of 'Looming Threat of Global Cooling', Climate Depot Exclusive
Monday, May 17th 2010, 2:31 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment'Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been'

CHICAGO -- A prominent U.S. geologist is urging the world to forget about global warming because global cooling has already begun.

Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook's warning came in the form of a new scientific paper he presented to the 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago on May 16, 2010. Dr. Easterbrook is an Emeritus Professor at Western Washington University who has authored eight books and 150 journal publications. Easterbrook's full resume is here.

Dr. Easterbrook joins many other scientists, peer-reviewed research and scientific societies warning of a coming global cooling. Easterbrook is presenting his findings alongside other man-made global warming skeptics at the three day conference in Chicago.
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Sun may soon have four poles, say researchers by Seiji Tanaka
Saturday, April 21st 2012, 9:49 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThe sun may be entering a period of reduced activity that could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers.

Officials of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19 that the activity of sunspots appeared to resemble a 70-year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over and cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual in Kyoto.

In that era, known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures are estimated to have been about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century.

The Japanese study found that the trend of current sunspot activity is similar to records from that period.

The researchers also found signs of unusual magnetic changes in the sun. Normally, the sun’s magnetic field flips about once every 11 years. In 2001, the sun’s magnetic north pole, which was in the northern hemisphere, flipped to the south.
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Roger Andrews: Solar Activity, ENSO And Recent Global Warming
Saturday, March 17th 2012, 7:20 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Before proceeding, credit where credit is due. The concept of a relationship between the sun and ENSO events isn’t new. It’s been discussed at least twice on this blog (here and here) and in detail by Theodor Landscheidt (here).The connection between ENSO events and warming isn’t new either. Three years ago Bob Tisdale (here) showed how ENSO events caused periodic upward shifts in the SST record that explained all of the recent global warming. Also not new, thanks to our host, is the theory that the oceans periodically release stored heat to the air (here). So a h/t to these gentlemen and to any others I may have omitted.

What follows is my attempt to condense these hypotheses into a narrative that uses observational data to illustrate how the solar cycle, ENSO events and the release of stored ocean heat, and not man-made greenhouse gases, combined to cause the recent global warming, which began, incidentally, in 1976.

ENSO Events and Solar Cycles

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Figure 1 plots the Niño3.4 Index since 1960 (the Bivariate ENSO, Multivariate ENSO and Oceanic Niño Indices give essentially the same results). I’ve used the commonly-accepted +/-0.5C threshold to define individual Niño and Niña events and the zero crossover to define Niños and Niñas that transition directly into each other, and the duration of each event is shown by the red and blue vertical stripes.

Figure 1: ENSO Events Defined by Niño3.4 Index (Niños red, Niñas blue)
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