Solar Cycle 25 Blog

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Joseph D'Aleo: NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
Wednesday, June 13th 2012, 7:28 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NASA MSFC

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

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The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.
Source Link: icecap.us/
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P. Gosselin: Yet Another Paper Shows “The Enormous Importance Of Solar Activity Fluctuations On Climate”
Monday, May 14th 2012, 7:10 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Figure 1: Reconstruction of precipitation amounts for the edge of the Tibet Plateau. The bars on the chart depict prominent weak phases of solar activity, which correspond to Om = Oort Minimum; Wm = Wolf Minimum; Sm = Spörer Minimum; Mm = Maunder Minimum; Dm = Dalton Minimum). Figure from: Sun & Liu (2012).

Yet another study has appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research, this one looks at the precipitation history on the Tibet Plateau of the last 1000 years.

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt have written a summary of this paper, which I’ve translated in the English.
Source Link: notrickszone.com
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MUST SEE YOUTUBE: ScienceCasts: Hidden Magnetic Portals Around Earth
Friday, June 29th 2012, 9:40 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
ScienceCasts: Hidden Magnetic Portals Around Earth - YouTube link



Published on Jun 28, 2012 by ScienceAtNASA

Visit http://science.nasa.gov/ for more.

A NASA-sponsored researcher at the University of Iowa has developed a way for spacecraft to hunt down hidden magnetic portals in the vicinity of Earth. These portals link the magnetic field of our planet to that of the sun.

....Er, NASA, why have you left out the MOONS ORBIT in this Video?
Giv2.me - The Charity Donations Site
Could 2011 be the Year Without Summer? by Tom Rowan
Tuesday, July 27th 2010, 3:56 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It happened in 1816 and is bound to happen again.

In 1816 the northern hemisphere suffered through the year without summer. During the previous winter the Mt Tambora volcano erupted. Thousands froze to death due to the bitter cold the atmospheric ash clouds created.

Frost killed most of the early crops as late as May that year in North America. Frost and snow killed even crops more in June. Riots, arson, and looting flared up in Europe as common food stores became scarce. Lake and river ice were recorded in Pennsylvania in July and August. 1816 also was a year of historic low solar activity as measured by 1816 era telescopes counting sunspots.

Do we have anything like this to fear in 2011? All the stars, including our own, are aligning for a repeat performance by Mother Nature. Consider:

We are currently experiencing another prolonged solar minimum. Even with 21st century telescopes we can see that the sun is only producing tiny sun specks and weak sunspots.
Source Link: americanthinker.com
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First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years by David Archibald, guest post at WUWT
Sunday, January 29th 2012, 12:09 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked in 2007. In year before, Dr David Hathaway of NASA made the first general estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/

Based on the slowing of the Sun’s “Great Conveyor Belt”, he predicted that

“The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries.”
He is very likely to have got the year wrong in that Solar Cycle 25 is unlikely to start until 2025.


In this paper: http://www.probeinternational.org/Livingston-penn-2010.pdf,

Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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A Puzzling Collapse of Earth’s Upper Atmosphere by Dr. Tony Phillips
Saturday, July 17th 2010, 6:56 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event in our planet’s atmosphere. High above Earth’s surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called “the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.

“This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years,” says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). “It’s a Space Age record.”

The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009 - a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.

“Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert.

The thermosphere ranges in altitude from 90 km to 600+ km. It is a realm of meteors, auroras and satellites, which skim through the thermosphere as they circle Earth. It is also where solar radiation makes first contact with our planet. The thermosphere intercepts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photons from the sun before they can reach the ground. When solar activity is high, solar EUV warms the thermosphere, causing it to puff up like a marshmallow held over a camp fire. (This heating can raise temperatures as high as 1400 K-hence the name thermosphere.) When solar activity is low, the opposite happens.
Source Link: physorg.com
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March solar flare was strongest yet seen by Kate Taylor: Updated with NASA YouTube
Wednesday, June 13th 2012, 2:52 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The solar flare which erupted on March 7 was the most powerful eruption ever observed by Fermi's Large Area Telescope (LAT).

The flare, classified as X5.4, made the sun briefly the brightest object in the gamma-ray sky.

"For most of Fermi's four years in orbit, its LAT saw the sun as a faint, steady gamma-ray source thanks to the impacts of high-speed particles called cosmic rays," says Nicola Omodei, an astrophysicist at Stanford University in California. "Now we're beginning to see what the sun itself can do."

At the flare's peak, it was emitting gamma rays with two billion times the energy of visible light, or about four billion electron volts - easily setting a record for the highest-energy light ever detected during or immediately after a solar flare.
Source Link: tgdaily.com
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David Hathaway Latest Solar Cycle Update for SC24 IS Making SC 25 Even Worse (updated)
Monday, March 12th 2012, 9:18 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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David Hathaway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse! - Link for original article at ClimateRealists.com 10th October 2010

I had this to say in 2010 - For those of you who follow David Hathaway's Solar Cycle forecasts, it is not looking good for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is due to start about the end of 2020, nothing dramatic about that, apart from it WILL be lower in its Sunspot count then Solar Cycle 24, and boy oh boy how the numbers are starting to fall!

I have kept track of the Solar Cycle 24 forecasts from David Hathaway, and the latest prediction compared from two years or so ago has taken yet another fall...This is what David Hathaway has to say from the recent March 2012 Solar Cycle Prediction Update
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Winter 2010-2011 predictions by Theodore White
Monday, July 19th 2010, 9:30 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
With everyone enjoying our warmer than normal summer, one can’t help but speculate as to what winter of 2010-2011 will be like for our area. This is what Theodore White, astrometeorologist has to say:

“From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo a historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017. In the meantime, I am also forecasting that the years of late 2009 to 2016 will feature some of the world's wildest climate and weather events of the early 21st century that, by the mid-2010s, will have seen the close of the current 36-year phase of global warming that Earth has experienced since 1980. By 2010, in my estimation, we will have entered the 30th year of Solar-forced global warming. These last six-to-seven-and-a-half years, from 2010 to about 2017, will likely feature some of the warmest global temperatures recorded in the entire 36th year global warming cycle. This cycle, like that of global cooling on its way in the decades ahead - is directly caused by the Sun.

Click source to read FULL report from Theodore White
Source Link: examiner.com
Horst-Joachim Lüdecke: The Sun, not Man, warms the Earth
Sunday, October 16th 2011, 6:24 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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A German climate researcher has discovered that the surge in solar radiation that began in 1700, peaked in 1960 and is still at historically high levels was far stronger and more significant than had previously been realized.

According to Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, who spent months comparing the varying widths of annual tree-rings and stalagmite deposits with recent temperature and sunspot records, this remarkable increase in solar activity was the real reason why the weather got warmer from 1950-2000. There has been no warming since 2000.

Dr. Lüdecke reports his major discovery in the latest issue of the acclaimed climate-science journal Energy and Environment.

His discovery is consistent with earlier results from Professor Sami Solanki in Finland, who reported in the journal Science six years ago that the Sun’s activity in the second half of the 20th century had been greater than during almost any similar period since the end of the last Ice Age 11,400 years ago.
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