View Article

view the latest news articles
What the Solar Cycle might be telling us about Fall and Winter by Dean Grubbs
Tuesday, August 18th 2009, 4:11 PM UTC
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Seasonal forecasting is like predicting the outcome of a baseball game.

There are so many statistics, facts, and figures to analyze. The next step would be to decide which factors are most important. Is it an overpowering pitcher with a low ERA and high strikeouts? Conditions which favor the batters to excel against such a Pitcher. Does a team become error-prone in the second half of the season? Could one team be unbeatable on Sunday afternoons? If you want some really cool (or convoluted) ways to understand Baseball then learn about Sabermetrics.

Weather forecasting casts the same analytical spiderwebs. What rules the day? Is it a warmer than average Atlantic Ocean (AMO), tendency for blocking highs in the North Atlantic (NAO) or over the Pole (AO)? How about the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina? ). Then there is historical data and solar cycles. Caterpillars, Grounhogs, Squirrels gathering nuts ..... ENOUGH INFORMATION TO DRIVE ANY SANE PERSON CRAZY!

Article continues below this advert:

My starting point for forecasting temperature and precipitation for the next two seasons is our very deep solar minimum. A typical solar minimum has 485 spotless days. The current minimum has reached 690 with more to come! (source: ). This level of quiet is approaching century levels leading some to speculate that the sun could be headed toward an extended period of quiet like the Dalton or Maunder Minimums. I don't know if the sun is truly post-minimum or if impact of less irradiance (cooling) might continue. Therefore we make post minimum seasons a starting point for creating an outlook.

To determine which years immediately followed a solar minimum I used Space Weather's Sunspots in History tool. The years chosen are 1903, 1914, 1925, 1934, 1944, 1955, 1965, 1977, 1987, and 1996. Below is a slideshow which shows the average temperature and preciptation anomalies.

Remember, this is a starting point. There are plenty of other players which must be factored in to be more accurate.

Click to view SLIDESHOW
Source Link:
Articles by Climate Realists and Topics

» Recently used highlighted

Useful links
  • » News articles may contain quotes, these are copyright to the respective publication which will be stated, along with a link to the source article where available.
  • » If you feel your copyright has been violated please contact us and the article will be removed or amended at your request.
Site Details
  • » Launched 15 May 2009
  • » Website Design by Mr Zippy
Climate Depot Feed
  • » Feed Error