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Record ice-storms, blizzards & floods confirm WeatherAction long range forecast for extreme events 16-27 Jan on 5 continents.
Wednesday, January 27th 2010, 5:35 AM EST
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Updated below with comments from Piers Corbyn to Stephen Wilde on

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Posted by Stephen Wilde on Jan 26th 2010, 4:55 AM EST

Although there was recently a little more solar activity it was very minor compared to the powerful peaks of the strong solar cycles 19, 21, 22 and 23 during the late 20th Century.

Could Piers please indicate why the consequences of the recent slight solar activity are so large when that solar activity remained very weak in historical terms?

Posted by Co2sceptic on Jan 26th 2010, 5:21 AM EST

Hi Stephen

What we DON'T see in past analysis is the recording of data for magnetic connections from the Sun to the Earth, it is not as simple to say more solar activity the more changes on the Earth.

I will drop Piers a line on this, the following articles are from our "Solar News" tag.

Posted by Piers Corbyn on Jan 26th 2010, 11:14 PM EST


Thanks for links from CO2 sceptic which explain the importance of magnetic linkages and critical processes, the extra sensitivity of the earth to solar activity during ODD-EVEN cycle transitions, etc.

Consider a question:- How come there were so many more road accidents when the temperature ONLY dropped by a few degrees? The answer of course being ice formation (a critical process).

Key points

1. Lots of things visible & invisible happen on the sun - ejecting particles, radiation, changing magnetic fields etc.

2. They have no effect on Earth unless they actually hit earth (or Earth's magnetic field) and penetrate to wherever they will be effective.

3. The factors which control the EFFECT of solar activity (including measured, unmeasured and as yet unknown fluxes) broadly cover directional effects from the sun, magnetic linkages between the solar wind and the earth and modulation effects include lunar effects, seasons, stratospheric winds etc

4. The directional effects are crucial. Most CMEs (Coronal mass ejections) miss earth entirely.

5. The modulation & linkage factors vary hugely - Like the difference between what you feel in a room on a wet & windy day when a window is open or closed. Indeed the concept of the earth's magnetic field being open or closed to the solar wind is about 50 years old.

6. The importance of NOTHING. When just about Nothing seems to be happening on the sun that too can be very important, it may make the jet stream more stable but when something interrupts such a quiet state we notice big time.

This may be relevant to the astounding almost circular with amazing triangular symmetry jet stream in earlier parts of January which has got disrupted dramatically by a series of predicted SWIPS since then - especially 18th-20th - see animation links in WANewsNo8.

It's like if a loud mouth walks into a noisy party there is not much effect but there would be in a quaker prayer meeting.

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